Dillard's Pre-Q3 Earnings Indicate Mixed Trends: Is It Worth Buying?

Core Insights - Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) is anticipated to report year-over-year declines in both revenue and earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenues expected at $1.42 billion, reflecting a 0.2% decrease, and earnings per share (EPS) projected at $6.43, indicating a 16.8% decline from the previous year [1][10]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 0.2% decline in revenues year-over-year, while the EPS estimate suggests a 16.8% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [1][10]. - In the last reported quarter, Dillard's achieved an earnings surprise of 23%, with an average earnings surprise of 24% over the trailing four quarters [2]. Growth Drivers - Dillard's is focusing on growth opportunities in both brick-and-mortar and e-commerce sectors, supported by strong consumer demand and effective inventory management [3][4]. - The company is enhancing brand relationships, remodeling stores, and optimizing its activewear segment, which is expected to contribute to a 0.6% rise in comparable-store sales and a 0.2% increase in overall retail sales for the fiscal third quarter [5][10]. Cost and Margin Pressures - The company is facing challenges from a tough retail environment and cautious consumer buying behavior, which may negatively impact margins and overall profitability [6]. - Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses are projected to increase by 3.9% year-over-year, with the SG&A expense rate expected to rise by 100 basis points to 29.9% [7]. Valuation and Market Performance - Dillard's is trading at a premium compared to industry averages, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 1.46X, higher than the Retail - Regional Department Stores industry's average of 0.49X [11]. - Over the past three months, Dillard's shares have increased by 29.7%, while the industry has seen a growth of 41.3% [12].