Canadian Natural Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Expenses Increase Y/Y

Core Insights - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 62 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 54 cents, but down from 71 cents in the previous year due to lower realized oil and natural gas liquid prices and rising expenses [1][11] - Total revenues reached $6.9 billion, an increase from $6.5 billion in the prior-year period, driven by higher production volumes and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.7 billion [2][11] Financial Performance - CNQ's net earnings for the third quarter were approximately C$0.6 billion, with adjusted net earnings from operations around C$1.8 billion [5] - Cash flows from operating activities totaled approximately C$3.9 billion, with adjusted funds flow also reaching approximately C$3.9 billion [5] - The company returned about C$1.5 billion to shareholders, including C$1.2 billion in dividends and C$0.3 billion from share repurchases [4] Production and Prices - Quarterly production was reported at 1,620,261 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), an 18.9% increase year-over-year, exceeding model projections [7][11] - Oil and NGL output increased to 1,175,604 barrels per day (Bbl/d) from 1,021,572 Bbl/d a year ago, also beating projections [7] - Natural gas volumes rose to 2,668 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), a 30.2% increase from the previous year, surpassing model estimates [8] Costs and Capital Expenditure - Total expenses for the quarter were C$9 billion, up from C$6.1 billion in the prior year, primarily due to increased depletion, depreciation, and amortization expenses [14] - Capital expenditure totaled C$2.1 billion, compared to C$1.3 billion a year ago [14] Shareholder Returns and Dividends - The board approved a quarterly cash dividend of 58.75 Canadian cents per common share, payable on January 6, 2026, marking a commitment to shareholder value [3] - CNQ has a strong track record of dividend growth, with a 21% annual growth rate over the past 25 years [3] Guidance and Future Outlook - CNQ increased its 2025 capital forecast to C$6.7 billion and raised production targets to a range of 1,560 to 1,580 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day [16] - Natural gas production is expected to range between 2,535 and 2,575 MMcf/d for 2025 [16] Strategic Developments - After the quarter-end, CNQ completed the AOSP swap with Shell, gaining full ownership of the Albian oil sands mines and an 80% stake in the Scotford Upgrader, adding 31,000 bbl/d of stable bitumen output [13]