Stocks to Watch for the First Trillion Dollar Holiday Shopping Season

Core Insights - The upcoming holiday shopping season in the U.S. is projected to exceed $1 trillion in retail sales for the first time in history, with consumer spending expected to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion during November and December 2025, marking a 3.7%-4.2% increase from last year's $976 billion [1][2]. Retail Leaders - Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) are highlighted as leading retailers with robust business models capable of capitalizing on the holiday shopping season while generating multiple revenue streams [3]. - Amazon has transformed into a platform-based ecosystem, benefiting from its AWS cloud services and subscription services like Prime Video, which are enhanced by advertising revenue [4]. - Amazon's e-commerce operations have improved significantly through the deployment of over 1 million robots, enhancing productivity in its fulfillment network [5]. - Walmart has successfully transitioned from a traditional brick-and-mortar model to a significant online presence, achieving annual digital sales exceeding $100 billion, supported by its grocery niche and low-cost pharmacy services [6]. Stock Performance - Both Amazon and Walmart are rated with a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and are expected to achieve new sales peaks in Q4, following last year's quarterly sales of $187.79 billion and $169.59 billion, respectively [7]. Apparel Sector Insights - The apparel sector has faced challenges due to higher tariffs, with Crocs (CROX) identified as a potential rebound candidate, currently trading at a low forward earnings multiple of 6X [9]. - Crocs' EPS is projected to dip 8% this year but is expected to rebound by 4% in FY26 to $12.60, with recent estimates showing a 5% increase over the last 30 days [10]. Additional Retail Stocks and ETFs - Costco (COST) is noted as a retail leader with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), alongside other apparel stocks like Lululemon (LULU), Nike (NKE), and Under Armour (UAA) that may benefit from the anticipated record holiday shopping season [11]. - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector (XLY) ETF is recommended for exposure to top retail stocks, including Amazon, Nike, and Lululemon, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [12].