美联储穆萨勒姆：美国经济将在明年初强劲反弹 进一步降息空间有限

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve officials should exercise caution regarding further interest rate cuts, as a strong economic rebound is expected in early next year, driven by factors such as the end of government shutdowns and fiscal support [1][2] - The current Federal Reserve policy rate is nearing a level that will not exert downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking overly accommodative monetary policy [1] - There is a growing economic pressure on low- and middle-income households, as many are increasingly seeking assistance from food banks and utility payment aid, highlighting the erosion of consumer purchasing power due to inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Approximately 40% of the inflation above the 2% target is attributed to tariff factors, and decision-makers need to address other price-increasing elements, including persistent service sector inflation [2] - Despite a softening labor market and potential increases in unemployment due to government shutdowns, employment is expected to stabilize near full employment levels [2] - Concerns about asset valuations have been raised, with indications that housing prices appear high relative to historical standards and stock prices are also elevated, reflecting the effects of a loose financial environment [2]