国债期货：资金面短期收紧 但债市情绪向好

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.22%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.01%, the 5-year main contract up by 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract unchanged [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds showed mixed results, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 0.05 basis points to 1.8770%, the 10-year treasury bond "25附息国债16" yield unchanged at 1.8060%, and the 30-year treasury bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down by 0.85 basis points to 2.1475% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 119.9 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase on November 10, with a bid amount of 119.9 billion yuan and a winning amount of 119.9 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan [2] - Interbank market liquidity tightened further, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit-taking institutions rising over 15 basis points to 1.48%, and overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system jumping to 1.55% [2] News Developments - The U.S. officially announced a one-year suspension of the 301 investigation measures against China's shipbuilding industry, while China announced a one-year suspension of special port fees for U.S. vessels and countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. [3] - After a 40-day government shutdown, the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill to end the shutdown, but the House of Representatives still needs to vote on it [3] Operational Recommendations - The bond market faced multiple headwinds, including rising inflation data and tightening liquidity, yet overall sentiment remained strong, with a preference for bonds with yield spread advantages [4] - The expected fluctuation range for the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250016 is projected to be between 1.75% and 1.82%, with the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading solidifying the interest rate floor [4] - Investors are advised to consider buying on dips and to explore opportunities in positive spread strategies due to rising IRR [4]