港口煤价突破800，供需收紧有望使价格继续上涨 | 投研报告

Core Insights - The tightening supply of coal is expected to drive up thermal coal prices due to strict safety regulations and a 10% reduction in coal import quotas, leading to decreased import volumes [2][3] - The coking coal market is experiencing tight supply, with downstream winter stockpiling underway, although steel mills are facing declining profit margins, which may weaken the upward momentum of coking coal prices in the short term [2][3] - Economic indicators show improvement, with CPI and PPI data reflecting a rebound, providing a boost to market sentiment amid concerns over the US government shutdown and AI bubble fears, leading to price increases in upstream raw materials including coal, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [2][3] Market Analysis - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month increase in CPI for October, and a 1.2% increase in core CPI, marking six consecutive months of growth [2][3] - PPI saw a 0.1% month-on-month increase, the first rise this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, indicating a positive trend in economic data [2][3] - The coal sector has significantly outperformed market indices, driven by the rebound in CPI and PPI, and the "anti-involution" effect leading to price increases in essential raw materials [2][3]