十月行业动态报告-Q3火电业绩增长，核电、绿电业绩承压

Core Insights - The report indicates that the performance of nuclear and wind power sectors is under pressure, while thermal power shows growth [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profits for SW thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar power sectors were 69.69 billion, 51.32 billion, 16.58 billion, 12.91 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.8%, 3.3%, -12.4%, -16.4%, and 86.0% [1][2] - In Q3 2025, the net profits for SW thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar power sectors were 36.01 billion, 28.29 billion, 8.45 billion, 2.45 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.3%, -1.6%, -16.5%, -35.6%, and 169.5% [1][2] Group 2: Electricity Generation - In September, the total industrial electricity generation was 826.2 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with a slight deceleration compared to August [3] - The generation from thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar power in September changed by -5.4%, 31.9%, 1.6%, -7.6%, and 21.1% year-on-year, with respective changes in growth rates compared to August of -7.1 percentage points, +43.0 percentage points, -5.9 percentage points, -27.8 percentage points, and +5.2 percentage points [3] Group 3: Electricity Consumption - In September, the total electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, showing a slowdown compared to August [4] - The electricity consumption for primary, secondary, tertiary industries, and residential use was 12.9 billion, 570.5 billion, 176.5 billion, and 128.7 billion kWh respectively, with year-on-year changes of 7.3%, 5.7%, 6.3%, and -2.6% [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the demand for green electricity is expected to be catalyzed by energy consumption targets for the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the establishment of a sustainable pricing mechanism for new energy will clarify future revenue expectations [5] - For thermal power, coal production has declined year-on-year from July to September, and the market price for coal has rebounded, indicating a potential opportunity for investment [5][6] - The report highlights the long-term value of hydropower and nuclear power during a declining interest rate cycle, with specific stock recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [6]