智通财经网·2025-11-11 03:48Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 is expected to continue a weak recovery, with no significant improvement in the banking sector's fundamentals, leading to a sustained focus on high dividend strategies [1][2] Economic Environment - The A-share market has shown a significant divergence between "dividend" and "technology growth" styles, creating a "seesaw pattern" [2] - In uncertain external conditions, funds are flowing into stable cash flow and high-dividend sectors for immediate certainty, while risk appetite recovery leads to a shift towards technology growth for future high returns [2] Banking Sector Fundamentals - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to continue bottoming out, with credit growth maintaining around 7%-8% and a gradual slowdown in the trend of deposit regularization [2] - Cost optimization on the liability side is expected to mitigate the impact of policy interest rate cuts, leading to a further narrowing of interest margin declines [2] - Non-interest income is anticipated to improve due to a recovering capital market, although other non-interest income may be dragged down by low bond market volatility and high baselines [2] - Asset quality is stable, with non-performing loan ratios remaining steady, but retail risks are still emerging, particularly concerning real estate-related risks [2] Dividend Strategy - Several banks have successfully implemented mid-term dividends, showcasing stability and sustainability in their dividend policies [2] - The focus remains on high dividend yield strategies, with specific recommendations for state-owned banks and high-yield private banks such as China Merchants Bank and regional banks like Hangzhou Bank and Jiangsu Bank [3] - There is an emphasis on banks with limited refinancing dilution risks and those that can quickly recover through profit releases, as well as those with strong cyclical attributes [3]