【环球财经】2000美元能“买来”民众支持加征关税吗

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is proposing a one-time "tariff dividend" of $2,000 per person for citizens outside the high-income group, funded by tariffs collected from trade, raising questions about the legality and feasibility of such a policy [1][3]. Financial Implications - The total cost of distributing $2,000 to the entire U.S. population of approximately 340 million would amount to $680 billion, and even after excluding high-income earners, the cost would still exceed $500 billion [1]. - The projected tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is $195 billion, which is a significant increase of $118 billion from the previous fiscal year, but still insufficient to cover the proposed dividend [1]. Legal Considerations - The legality of the proposed "tariff dividend" is under scrutiny, as the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to levy taxes, while the President's authority to impose tariffs is being challenged in the Supreme Court [3]. - Officials are attempting to frame tariffs as diplomatic tools rather than revenue-generating measures, complicating the legal landscape surrounding the proposed dividend [3]. Economic Impact - Scholars argue that the burden of tariffs will not disappear but will instead be passed on to consumers through higher prices, potentially negating the benefits of the proposed cash payments [5]. - Research indicates that during Trump's first term, tariffs led to increased prices for consumer goods, with U.S. importers and consumers bearing over 90% of the tariff costs [5]. Political Strategy - The proposal for a "tariff dividend" may be a strategic move to regain public support for the administration's trade policies, especially among lower-income groups, by creating the illusion that protectionism equates to welfare [5][6]. - The Wall Street Journal critiques the approach of using cash payments to placate public discontent over high taxes, labeling it a common political tactic [6].