Group 1 - The 2026 Capital Markets Conference hosted by CITIC Securities took place in Shenzhen from November 11 to 13, focusing on the theme "Striving for a New Journey" and featuring over a hundred top scholars, industry experts, and representatives from various investment sectors [1] - CITIC Securities' chief economist Mingming projected a GDP growth rate of 4.9% for China in 2025, with stronger growth anticipated in 2026, driven by fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [1] - Domestic consumption growth is expected to reach 3.9% in 2025, with an average growth rate of 4%-5% in 2026, supported by key industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones [1] Group 2 - China's manufacturing value-added accounts for 26% of its economy, significantly higher than the 10% in the United States, indicating a relative lag in certain sectors [1] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected at approximately 3% in 2025, with an increase to 4% in 2026, highlighting the importance of policy support for infrastructure development [1] - The economic competition indicators between China and the U.S. are narrowing, with significant disparities in inflation, policy rates, and innovation metrics [2]
中信证券首席经济学家明明:2025年GDP增速预计为4.9% 中美竞争指标增长差距收窄