金价升回约半个月高位，市场进一步看涨5000美元，是何底层逻辑？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year and $5,200 to $5,300 by the end of 2026, driven by economic uncertainties and central bank purchases [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged nearly 3% recently, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, due to weak U.S. economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][4]. - The Challenger report indicated over 150,000 job cuts in October, the highest for this period in over 20 years, signaling a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [3]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve are at 64%, with a 77% probability for January [3]. Group 2: Government Impact - The U.S. Senate is advancing a funding bill to reopen the government, which could enhance data transparency and further elevate rate cut expectations [4]. - The potential end of the government shutdown may shift investor focus back to deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects, historically supporting gold investments [4]. Group 3: Gold Tokenization - The rise of gold tokens, such as Tether Gold (XAUT), has been noted, with XAUT's market cap increasing from $1.44 billion to nearly $2.1 billion, reflecting a 60% surge [6]. - Gold tokens currently represent about 1% of the stablecoin market, with a total market cap of approximately $3 billion compared to $300 billion for dollar-backed stablecoins [6][7]. - Concerns about the risks associated with gold tokens have been raised, including issues related to delivery, long-term reliability, and the ability to redeem physical gold [7].