Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector in China presents strong investment value due to significant electricity cost advantages, multiple growth drivers on the demand side, and tightening supply conditions amid the rapid global development of AI, which is driving up electricity demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Outlook - Bank of America raised the profit forecast for China Hongqiao (01378) for 2026-2030 by 5-14%, increasing the target price from HKD 35 to HKD 38 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The supporting logic includes a dividend yield of 6%-7%, the commissioning of the Ximangdu project by the end of 2025, share buybacks, and a valuation advantage with a 9x P/E ratio in 2026 [1] Group 2: Cost Advantages - Chinese aluminum producers benefit from a significant electricity cost advantage, with electricity prices in China being 20% lower than in India and 30%-60% lower than in Europe and the U.S. [1] - Aluminum production requires 13,500 kWh of electricity per ton, resulting in a cost advantage of RMB 1,200-3,600 (approximately USD 170-500) per ton compared to competitors in other regions [1] Group 3: Demand Drivers - Global data center electricity consumption is expected to grow from 416 TWh in 2024 to 946 TWh in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% [2] - AI data center aluminum demand is projected to increase from 330,000 tons in 2025 to 695,000 tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 16% [2] - The expected shipment volumes for energy storage batteries in 2025 and 2026 are 500 GWh and 650 GWh, respectively, translating to aluminum demand of 250,000 tons and 325,000 tons [2] Group 4: Supply Conditions - The aluminum supply side is tightening, with international producers like Century Aluminum (CENX.US), South32 (SOUHY.US), and Rio Tinto (RIO.US) facing production cuts or closures due to various electricity issues [2] - The established aluminum production capacity cap of approximately 45 million tons in China is expected to support aluminum prices globally, particularly as high-cost producers face challenges [2]
美银：AI缺电下中国铝企成“隐形冠军” 上调中国宏桥(01378)目标价至38港元