中信证券，最新研判！2026年聚焦三主线

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its fluctuating recovery, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, marking the beginning of a new era of asset dividends in China driven by global environment, technological trends, and institutional changes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Chinese capital market has entered a new development phase, showing vibrant growth and new characteristics driven by profound changes in the global context, technological trends, and institutional environment [2]. - The transition from old to new economic drivers, particularly in artificial intelligence and biotechnology, is creating new opportunities in the capital market, enhancing market risk appetite and attracting global capital [2][3]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive in 2026, with an increase in special bond quotas aimed at project construction, while monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose stance [3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - The global macro environment is generally loose, with expectations of a mild recovery in the economy under structural differentiation, and new productive forces are anticipated to stabilize economic growth over the next five years [3]. - The focus for 2026 will be on three main allocation lines: the revaluation of pricing power in the manufacturing sector, the deepening of enterprises' overseas expansion, and the continuation of the technology market [4][5]. Group 3: Key Investment Themes - The manufacturing sector is shifting from scale expansion to enhancing pricing power and profits, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [5]. - Enterprises are expected to deepen their overseas expansion, with attention on profit margin increases and global capacity layout, particularly in machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, power equipment, and military industries [5]. - The technology sector is poised for continued growth, with potential breakthroughs in AI commercialization, emphasizing opportunities in semiconductors, computing power, hardware, and AI applications [5].