债市日报：11月11日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a sideways trend, with expectations of maintaining this overall oscillation until the end of the year, while fundamental pressures in the fourth quarter may lead to opportunities for gradual duration extension in portfolios [1][7]. Market Performance - On November 11, the majority of government bond futures closed flat, with the 30-year main contract at 116.3, the 10-year contract down 0.01% at 108.475, and the 5-year and 2-year contracts remaining stable [2]. - The interbank yield rates for major bonds remained stable, with slight strength in the short end; the 30-year special government bond yield decreased by 0.05 basis points to 2.146% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2.92 basis points to 3.591% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, while the long end continued to rise, with the 10-year yield down 0.7 basis points to 1.692% [3]. - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 3.437%, while the German yield rose by 0.2 basis points to 2.666% [3]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5311%, 1.7181%, and 1.8819% for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year terms, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.66, 3.22, and 4.68 [4]. Funding Conditions - On November 11, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total of 4038 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 2863 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 2.9 basis points to 1.508% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities anticipates a mild expansion in fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy in 2026, with a projected range for the 10-year government bond yield between 1.6% and 1.9% [6]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that despite seasonal expectations, the fourth quarter may face increased fundamental pressures, leading to limited overall odds in the bond market [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income notes that credit spreads are compressing, with expectations for further declines in the bond market in November and December, while highlighting the need for structural opportunities in credit bonds [7].