Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-11 09:17Core Viewpoint - The human-shaped robot sector is experiencing a clash between optimistic expectations and the current reality, as highlighted by a Goldman Sachs report indicating that nine surveyed supply chain companies have not confirmed any significant mass production timelines or large orders [2][3]. Group 1: Survey Findings - Goldman Sachs conducted a survey from November 3 to 6, covering nine companies in the Chinese robot supply chain, including prominent firms like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group [2][3]. - The surveyed companies are planning annual production capacities ranging from 100,000 to 1,000,000 robot equivalents, reflecting a positive outlook on industry growth despite the absence of confirmed large orders [3][4]. - Companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control are actively establishing production lines in Thailand and Mexico, with Top Group's Thai factory projected to have an annual capacity of 1,000,000 units and an investment of approximately 7 to 8 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Market Response - Despite the ambitious production plans, none of the surveyed companies have confirmed receiving substantial orders, leading to concerns about potential overcapacity in the robot supply chain [3][6]. - Companies are preparing for future demand based on guidance from major clients, even though they currently lack confirmed orders [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the current lack of orders should not be interpreted as a sign of overcapacity, as proactive capacity planning is typical in emerging industries [8]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The optimism surrounding production capacity expansion is driven by the belief in the long-term potential of the human-shaped robot market, with companies like Minth Group projecting revenues of 5 billion yuan from related businesses by 2030 [5][8]. - The current phase of order scarcity is viewed as a natural part of the industry's early development, with significant uncertainties regarding future demand and technological evolution [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive long-term outlook on human-shaped robot technology, emphasizing the need to monitor key product performance and applications to assess potential technological breakthroughs [8].