黄金，开始大反攻！

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices surged by $114.57, a 2.86% increase, closing at $4115.48, with intraday highs reaching the highest level since October 24 [1] - Following the previous day's surge, gold continued to rise, hovering around $4142 during European trading hours [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. Senate passed a key funding bill with a vote of 60-40, which aims to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [3] - The bill will fund the federal government until January 30 and includes provisions to prevent further layoffs during the shutdown [3] - The probability of the government shutdown ending this week is estimated at 88% according to Polymarket [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 65.6%, with a 34.4% chance of maintaining current rates [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on future rate cuts, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut in December [6] - The reopening of the government is expected to lead to a surge of delayed economic data, which will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making [3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the recent market volatility may be influenced by three main factors: rising expectations for a stronger dollar, Trump's proposal for $2000 "dividends" to citizens, and potential shifts in institutional investment strategies [8] - Despite short-term uncertainties, firms like Morgan Stanley maintain a bullish outlook on U.S. equities, predicting strong corporate earnings growth will drive the market higher by 2026 [8] Group 5: Military Actions and International Relations - The U.S. military conducted strikes against two ships suspected of drug trafficking, resulting in six deaths, as part of a broader strategy against Venezuela [10] - Analysts view this military action as a means of exerting pressure on the Venezuelan government, despite official claims of combating drug trafficking [10]