Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao·2025-11-11 10:24Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Annual Conference hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the positive momentum in China's capital market, driven by enhanced international influence, improved corporate positioning in the global value chain, and a mature market ecosystem [3][9]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference took place from November 11 to 13 in Shenzhen, themed "Striving for a New Journey," featuring speeches from CITIC Securities' executives and over 100 guest speakers [3][6]. - The event attracted significant attendance, with over 4,000 participants on-site and 33,000 online viewers, highlighting its importance in the industry [6]. - The agenda included more than 20 sub-forums covering various topics such as global economic outlook, emerging market investments, and AI applications [6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities' Chief Economist predicts a GDP growth rate of approximately 5.0% for 2025 and 4.9% for 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern expected [9][10]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is anticipated to be more proactive, maintaining a deficit rate around 4%, with an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [10]. - The global economic landscape is expected to rebalance, with both the US and China experiencing a "front low, back high" economic cycle [10][11]. Group 3: Capital Market Characteristics - The capital market is expected to face new characteristics during the 14th Five-Year Plan, influenced by global changes, technological advancements, and improved institutional environments [8][9]. - The market's adaptability and inclusiveness are highlighted as key factors supporting technological innovation and wealth effects [8][9]. Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market is transitioning from local exposure to global exposure, with Chinese companies increasingly participating in the global value chain, which is foundational for a low-volatility, slow-bull market [13][14]. - The upcoming period is seen as a golden opportunity for equity markets, particularly between the signing of the US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections [6][14]. - Key investment themes include upgrading traditional manufacturing, expanding global operations, and leveraging AI for competitive advantage [14].