PPI环比回正，布局化工或当时？关注沪市规模最大、流动性最高化工ETF（516020）

Core Viewpoint - In October, the national Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first month of positive growth in PPI this year. This signals a potential upward trend for the chemical sector, which has been consolidating for a long time, suggesting significant upside potential as industrial prices are expected to rise with further PPI recovery [5]. Group 1: PPI and Chemical Sector Outlook - The chemical sector has experienced a long bottoming process, and the recent PPI increase indicates a broad upward potential for the industry [5]. - With the recovery of PPI, industrial product prices are anticipated to rise, enhancing the investment value in the chemical sector [5]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Conditions - Recent high-level discussions on "anti-involution" aim to promote the exit of outdated production capacity, which, combined with domestic demand recovery and export support from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, may lead to a recovery in the chemical industry [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - As of October 2025, the sub-sector chemical index has retraced over 44% since its peak in September 2021, with the current price-to-book ratio at 2.28 times, indicating a significant margin of safety for the sector [7]. - The sub-sector chemical index has shown a historical performance with returns of 51.68% in 2020, 15.72% in 2021, -26.89% in 2022, -23.17% in 2023, and -3.83% in 2024, reflecting the volatility and potential for recovery [9].