英国失业率升至2021年以来最高，交易员加大对央行下月降息押注

Core Points - The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 5% for the three months ending in September, the highest level since early 2021, surpassing economists' expectations of 4.9% [1] - The number of employees decreased by 32,000 in October, with September's data also revised down by the same amount [1] - The redundancy rate increased to 4.5 per 1,000 employees, marking the highest level since January 2024 and the second highest since the pandemic began [5] - Private sector wage growth slowed from 4.4% to 4.2%, the lowest since early 2021, aligning with economists' median expectations [5] - Following the data release, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England, with market pricing indicating an over 80% probability of action in December [5] - The report indicates a weakening labor market, with the Bank of England's Governor suggesting that if upcoming data confirms easing inflationary pressures, he may support a rate cut in December [5][6] Employment Market Insights - The employment report is the first in a series of data that will influence the Bank of England's decision on interest rates in December [6] - The upcoming GDP data and the budget announcement on November 26 are critical for the interest rate decision, with expectations of tax increases potentially impacting economic growth [6] - The rise in unemployment is attributed to the increase in national insurance contributions by £26 billion, which has drawn criticism from opposition parties and business groups [5][6] - The number of job vacancies increased by 2,000 compared to the previous quarter, but remains below pre-pandemic levels [11] - The unemployment-to-vacancy ratio reached its highest level since 2015, indicating a significant level of labor market slack [11] Wage Growth Dynamics - Real wage growth adjusted for inflation was only 0.8%, the weakest since August 2023, despite some sectors experiencing strong wage increases [11][14] - Public sector wages rose by 6.6%, the fastest growth since the end of 2023, influenced by earlier-than-expected pay increases [11] - Wages in wholesale, retail, and hospitality sectors also saw a robust increase of 5.7%, reflecting the impact of government tax increases on employment and minimum wage [14] - Nearly half of businesses reported reducing hiring due to the government's employment tax increase, while only 17% opted to lower wages [14]