AI救不了智能音箱

Core Insights - The smart speaker market in China is experiencing a significant decline, with Q3 2025 sales dropping to 3.057 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline [2][5] - Despite the rise of AI technologies, the smart speaker market has not benefited, as consumer demand remains low and high-end products have not translated into increased sales [5][8] - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top three brands (Baidu, Xiaomi, and Tmall Genie) holding over 97% of the market share [9][13] Market Performance - The total sales for 2024 are projected to be 15.7 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.6%, with a further expected drop of 9.6% to 14.2 million units in 2025 [5] - The average price of smart speakers has increased to 280 yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year, but this has not led to a corresponding increase in sales revenue [5][6] - Xiaomi leads the market with a 48.8% share, but its low-priced strategy has resulted in a perception of low value, impacting its ability to attract higher-end consumers [13] Brand Analysis - Baidu, once a market leader, has seen a decline in its market share despite maintaining a 32.8% share in Q3 2025, attributed to a lack of innovative features compared to competitors [13][14] - Tmall Genie is facing challenges due to slow technological updates and a declining market share, now at approximately 16% [14] - Huawei, while part of the top four, holds less than 2% of the market, focusing on high-end products, which limits its market reach [14] Consumer Behavior - The initial growth of the smart speaker market was driven by price subsidies and novelty, but the market has since become saturated with similar products [6][15] - Current consumer needs primarily revolve around music playback, information queries, and basic appliance control, with many advanced features failing to resonate with users [7][8] - The integration of AI has not yet addressed core consumer pain points, leading to a disconnect between product offerings and actual user needs [7][8]