Core Viewpoint - The price of gold jewelry has surpassed 1300 yuan per gram, leading to a significant decline in consumer demand for traditional gold ornaments, while investment demand for gold bars, coins, and ETFs is on the rise, indicating a profound shift in the identity of gold in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - The consumption of gold jewelry in China has dropped by 32.50% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to an overall decline in gold consumption of 7.95% [1][2]. - Traditional gold ornaments, once essential for weddings and festivals, are being pushed out of ordinary households' daily configurations due to high prices and a trend towards rational consumption [2]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Investment demand for gold, including bars, coins, and ETFs, has increased, with gold bar and coin consumption rising by 24.55% year-on-year in the first three quarters [4]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank adding 3,000 ounces (approximately 1 ton) in October, marking the twelfth consecutive month of purchases [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global macroeconomic environment is undergoing significant changes, including fluctuating U.S. monetary policy and increasing geopolitical tensions, which are driving demand for gold as a non-sovereign risk asset [2][3]. - The current gold price is at historical highs, but long-term factors such as global monetary expansion and unsustainable debt levels are expected to support higher gold prices [3]. Group 4: Structural Changes - The shift towards an investment-led gold market is being accelerated by tax policies, such as the differentiated VAT policy implemented on November 1, which has made physical gold jewelry less attractive compared to standardized investment products [4]. - Industrial demand for gold is also recovering, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and high-end manufacturing, providing new structural support for gold demand [5]. Group 5: Supply Developments - Significant discoveries in gold mining, such as the Dandong gold mine with an estimated resource of nearly 1,500 tons, are expected to enhance China's long-term resource security [5]. - Despite recent price corrections, market expectations for gold remain optimistic, with institutions like UBS maintaining a 12-month price target of $4,200 per ounce, potentially rising to $4,700 under certain geopolitical or financial stress scenarios [6].
没人买金镯了？全球央行却在疯狂囤金！
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-11-11 11:18