碳酸锂：伟大的楔形反转，引爆新一轮牛市！

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is at a historical turning point, with a classic descending wedge reversal pattern forming over 29 months, indicating a potential bull market in the next 1-2 years [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The lithium carbonate price has declined from approximately 220,000 yuan/ton at its peak in 2023 to a range of 58,000-60,000 yuan/ton by June 2025, before stabilizing [3]. - The descending wedge pattern is characterized by upper and lower trendlines connecting high and low points, with the upper line formed by the March 2024 high of 107,000 yuan and the January 2025 high of 79,000 yuan, while the lower line is defined by the December 2023 low of 85,000 yuan, the September 2024 low of 71,000 yuan, and the June 2025 low of 58,000 yuan [3]. - A breakout above the wedge's upper resistance and a rise above the 20-month moving average, along with a bullish crossover of the 5-month and 10-month moving averages, indicate a complete technical recovery [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global lithium resource supply growth is expected to slow down in 2025, with some high-cost mines ceasing operations or delaying construction, while domestic lithium mica production is declining due to environmental pressures [4]. - Demand for lithium carbonate is projected to surge, with China's electric vehicle sales expected to exceed 15 million units in 2025, leading to a demand of 500,000 tons for power batteries and a total global demand of 750,000 tons [4]. - The energy storage market is emerging as a second growth curve, with lithium battery shipments in China reaching 430 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 99% [4]. - The supply-demand balance is shifting from severe oversupply to tight equilibrium, potentially leading to a price increase [4]. Policy and Inventory Factors - Favorable policies are emerging, including stricter domestic environmental production limits and delays in the resumption of some mines in Jiangxi Yichun, alongside global efforts for green transition driven by the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism [4]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has significantly decreased, with weekly inventory dropping to 124,000 tons by early November 2025, reflecting a resolution of supply-demand conflicts [4]. Market Outlook - The current weekly chart indicates that lithium carbonate is in the third wave of an upward trend, with a target price of 118,000 yuan based on the first wave's 1.618 times extension [4]. - Despite potential short-term disruptions from macroeconomic fluctuations and advancements in lithium recycling technology or sodium battery alternatives, the technical breakout often precedes fundamental improvements, providing clear bullish signals for investors [6]. - The combination of technical pattern breakthroughs and fundamental improvements is expected to drive a significant bull market in lithium carbonate, with substantial returns anticipated in the next 1-2 years [6].