【新华解读】央行最新货政报告：金融总量指标需科学看待 保持合理利率比价关系

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the moderately loose monetary policy has effectively supported the real economy, and with the coordination of macro policies, the annual economic growth target of around 5% is expected to be achieved [1][4]. Monetary Policy Effectiveness - The report highlights that the counter-cyclical adjustment effects of monetary policy have gradually emerged, with reasonable growth in financial aggregates and low social financing costs [2]. - As of the end of September, the social financing scale stock and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [2]. - Loans in sectors such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy have grown faster than the overall loan growth rate, with loans for the elderly care industry increasing by nearly 60% [2]. Coordination of Policies - The report emphasizes the ongoing strengthening of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, which has facilitated the smooth issuance of government bonds [3]. - The net financing amount of government bonds is expected to reach 11 trillion yuan in 2024, with this year likely to exceed 12 trillion yuan [3]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - The People's Bank of China plans to maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates and leverage monetary credit policy effectively, balancing short-term and long-term goals, as well as internal and external factors [3]. - The report stresses the importance of implementing moderately loose monetary policies to fully release policy effects [3]. Financial Indicators and Their Interpretation - The report includes sections addressing how to scientifically view financial aggregate indicators, noting that the current RMB loan balance has reached 270 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock is at 437 trillion yuan [6]. - Experts suggest that as the economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development, the focus should shift from merely pursuing high growth in financial aggregates to optimizing the use of existing financial resources [6]. Interest Rate Mechanism - The report discusses the complexity of the money creation and derivation process, emphasizing that loan issuance is not the only way for banks to derive money [7]. - It highlights the need for maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy through better coordination and execution of interest rate policies [8].