Serve Robotics Before Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Serve Robotics Inc. is set to release its Q3 2025 results on November 12, 2025, with expectations of solid operational momentum and fleet expansion despite profitability constraints due to capital investments in scaling and AI integration [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Serve Robotics reported a 46% sequential revenue increase to $642,000, driven by record delivery volume and fleet utilization, with nearly 80% quarter-over-quarter growth in delivery volume [2] - The company experienced a GAAP net loss of $20.9 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $14.9 million due to high R&D and scaling investments [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 earnings per share remains unchanged at a loss of 37 cents, indicating a wider loss compared to the previous year's loss of 20 cents, with revenue expectations at $0.69 million, suggesting a 211.4% year-over-year increase [5][6] Growth Projections - Serve Robotics anticipates Q3 revenue between $600,000 and $700,000, implying year-over-year growth of 170% to 215% [9] - The company aims to deploy 2,000 robots by the end of 2025, having already surpassed 1,000 units in October [7][10] Strategic Partnerships - Serve Robotics has deepened partnerships with Uber Eats, Shake Shack, and Little Caesars, enhancing its delivery volume growth [12] - The company has expanded its merchant ecosystem to over 2,500 partners, which is expected to drive revenue growth [12] Technology and Innovation - Recent acquisitions of Vayu Robotics and Voysys are expected to enhance AI-driven autonomy and teleoperation capabilities, paving the way for stronger operational safety and margin expansion [17][18] - The company reported a 20% increase in daily operating hours per robot and a 25% reduction in intervention rates, indicating improved operational efficiency [19] Market Position and Competition - Serve Robotics faces competition from companies like Symbotic Inc. and Aurora Innovation, but its focus on autonomous sidewalk delivery positions it uniquely in the market [30][32] - The stock has gained 23.5% over the past six months, trading at a 56.3% discount to its 52-week high [25] Future Outlook - Serve Robotics aims for a long-term annualized revenue run-rate target of $60 million to $80 million once its fleet reaches full utilization by 2026 [21] - The company is fully funded through 2026 with $183 million in liquidity, allowing for continued scaling without dilution [35]