业内专家解读2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," summarizing the monetary policy execution in the first three quarters and outlining future policy directions [1][4]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating resilience and vitality in economic operations [4][6]. - The PBOC has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, maintaining ample liquidity and utilizing various monetary policy tools to support economic recovery and stabilize financial markets [4][5]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The report outlines the main strategies for the next phase of monetary policy, which include maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates, leveraging monetary and credit policies, balancing interest and exchange rates, accelerating financial market reforms, and proactively managing financial risks [4][6]. Financial Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of observing financial aggregates through social financing scale and money supply, rather than solely focusing on loans [8][10]. - As of now, the balance of RMB loans has reached 270 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale stands at 437 trillion yuan, indicating a natural decline in the growth rate of financial aggregates due to the increasing base [10][11]. Credit Structure and Economic Transition - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of credit structure, with a shift towards direct financing methods such as bond issuance, which has become more accessible for enterprises [8][9]. - The transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development necessitates a change in the growth of monetary credit, focusing on revitalizing existing financial resources rather than merely expanding credit volume [9][11]. Interest Rate and Financial Market Dynamics - The report discusses the need to maintain reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce arbitrage opportunities [13][14]. - It notes that the recent slowdown in deposit growth may reflect a reallocation of funds from deposits to the stock market, driven by changes in asset yield expectations [14].