Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Sterling Stock Post Q3 Earnings?

Core Insights - Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding estimates by 24.7% and 12.5% respectively, showcasing robust year-over-year growth across key metrics [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $3.48, a 58% increase from the prior year, while revenues totaled $689 million, reflecting a 32% rise [2] - The E-Infrastructure Solutions segment saw a 58% growth, with 42% being organic, and Transportation Solutions increased by 10% [2] - Gross margin expanded by 280 basis points to 24.7%, driven by a shift towards higher-margin projects [2] - Adjusted EBITDA grew 47% year-over-year to $156 million, with operating cash flow at $84 million [2] Market Performance - STRL shares gained 32.7% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Engineering - R and D Services industry and the S&P 500, which grew by 3.8% and 8.9% respectively [5] - The stock also outperformed the broader Construction sector's 1% rise during the same period [5] Growth Drivers - The data center market was a key growth driver, with revenues from this area increasing over 125% year-over-year [10] - A strong backlog of $2.6 billion, up 64% from the previous year, indicates solid visibility for future growth [12] - E-Infrastructure Solutions accounted for $1.8 billion of the backlog, reflecting a 97% year-over-year increase [12] - The company anticipates E-Infrastructure revenue growth of around 30% or higher on an organic basis for 2025 [11] Strategic Focus - Sterling's strategic focus on mission-critical projects, including data centers and e-commerce distribution, has strengthened its position in high-growth markets [9] - The Transportation Solutions segment showed steady progress, with adjusted operating profit increasing 40% year-over-year [14] Future Outlook - The company expects continued strong momentum in data centers into 2026, supported by a solid pipeline of new projects and healthy customer demand [11] - For 2025, STRL anticipates adjusted operating profit margins to rise to between 13.5% and 14% from 9.6% in 2024 [15] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at $9.57 and $10.98 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 56.9% and 14.7% respectively [16] Valuation - STRL is currently trading at a premium compared to industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above the five-year average [18] - The company is priced higher than competitors such as AECOM, Fluor, and KBR [20]