TTD Stock Post Q3 Earnings: Should Investors Hold or Fold?

Core Insights - The Trade Desk (TTD) stock has decreased by 15.6% over the past month, closing at $43.26, significantly lower than its 52-week high of $141.53 and closer to its 52-week low of $41.77 [1] - Revenues for Q3 2025 increased by 18% year over year to $739 million, surpassing consensus estimates by 3% and exceeding the company's own expectations of at least $717 million [1][9] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $371 million from $257 million year over year, with adjusted EPS at 45 cents, exceeding estimates and up from 41 cents in the previous year [2] Revenue Growth Drivers - Connected TV (CTV) is identified as the fastest-growing segment in the digital ad market, with management expecting decision-based CTV buying to become the default model in the future [3] - The company's AI-powered platform, Kokai, is utilized by 85% of clients and has shown significant performance improvements compared to previous models, enhancing its competitive edge [4] - Initiatives like OpenPath and OpenAds are designed to connect advertisers directly with publishers, improving transparency and efficiency in the supply chain [5] Market Opportunities - Approximately 60% of TTD's total addressable market is outside the United States, with international business currently accounting for about 13% of total revenues, indicating potential for long-term growth [6] - The company has a strong cash position of $1.4 billion with no debt, providing a buffer against macroeconomic volatility [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - TTD repurchased $310 million worth of stock in Q3 and has approved a new buyback plan of $500 million [8] - The stock is currently trading at a premium valuation, with a price/book multiple of 8.13X compared to the industry average of 7.69X [16] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is intensifying, with major players like Meta, Apple, Google, and Amazon dominating the ad tech space, which could pressure TTD's market position [13] - Smaller competitors like Magnite and PubMatic are also expanding their presence in CTV and retail media, increasing competition for ad dollars [14] Cost and Profitability Challenges - Total operating costs surged by 17% year over year to $457 million, driven by investments in platform capabilities, which may compress margins if revenue growth slows [15] - Macro volatility poses a significant concern for TTD, as worsening conditions could lead to reduced programmatic demand and pressure on revenue growth [12] Conclusion - Given the solid fundamentals and near-term headwinds, TTD is currently rated as a hold, suggesting that existing investors may retain their positions while new investors should wait for a more favorable entry point [18]