机构普遍看好2026年中国经济与A股市场

Economic Growth Outlook - Multiple institutions predict a stable economic growth trajectory for China in 2026, with targets around 5% [2][3] - China’s economic growth is expected to maintain resilience, with forecasts suggesting a GDP growth of approximately 4.9% in 2026 [2][3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - Fiscal spending is anticipated to continue moderate expansion, with local government finances improving due to steady progress in local debt management [2][3] - The government is expected to maintain a proactive fiscal stance, with an increase in special bonds and long-term treasury bonds [3][4] - Monetary policy is projected to include around two reserve requirement ratio cuts and one to two interest rate cuts in 2026 [3][4] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is transitioning from local to global exposure, with companies evolving into multinational entities [4] - A-share earnings are expected to gradually recover, with non-financial A-share growth projected to reach around 10% [4] - The market is likely to experience a shift towards balanced styles, driven by cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [6] Industry Trends and Opportunities - Key industry trends include the upgrading of traditional manufacturing, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the expansion of AI applications [5][6] - The "new economy" sectors are expected to grow faster than other economic sectors, with their GDP contribution projected to increase by 3 percentage points by 2030 [3]