Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-11-11 16:57Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, leading to a steady increase in prices, with the average domestic price of potassium chloride reaching 3237 RMB/ton, up 28.66% year-to-date and 34.37% year-on-year [1][2] - Major domestic potassium fertilizer producers are expected to continue their performance growth in Q4 due to resource control, cost advantages, and production capacity [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global potassium ore reserves exceed 4.8 billion tons, primarily located in Canada, Laos, Russia, and Belarus, which together account for 79% of the total [2] - China's potassium fertilizer imports are projected to reach 12.63 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.07%, with an import dependency exceeding 60% [2] - The domestic demand for fertilizers has surged due to the autumn farming season, while international production cuts have begun to impact supply, with significant reductions expected from Belarus and Russia [2] - As of October 31, domestic potassium chloride port inventory was approximately 2.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.48%, indicating a "more in the north, less in the south" situation [2] Industry Expansion and Capacity Development - Leading companies in the potassium fertilizer industry are accelerating overseas resource development, with Salt Lake Co. planning to increase its potassium fertilizer production capacity to 10 million tons per year by 2030 [3] - Yara International has a potassium chloride production capacity of 3 million tons per year and is focused on overseas resources, with significant reserves in Laos [3][4] - Cangge Mining and Dongfang Iron Tower are also actively pursuing overseas potassium fertilizer projects, with Cangge Mining having a current capacity of 1.2 million tons per year [4] Performance Outlook - Major potassium fertilizer companies in the A-share market have reported significant revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of the year, with Yara International's revenue reaching 3.867 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 55.76% [5][6] - The potassium chloride price is expected to remain supported in Q4 due to tight supply and stable demand, with low domestic port inventories and international contract prices providing additional support [6] - Salt Lake Co. plans to adopt a market-oriented approach in its potassium fertilizer production, focusing on aligning production with market demand and enhancing product effectiveness [6][7]