Vistra Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Lag, '25 Guidance Narrowed

Core Insights - Vistra Corp. reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.75 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.20 by 45.83% [1] - The market reacted positively, with shares increasing nearly 2% to close at $188.28 on November 10, 2025 [1] Revenue Summary - Total revenues for the quarter were $4.97 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of nearly $7 billion by 28.96% [2] - This represents a 21% decrease from $6.3 billion in the same quarter last year [2] Operational Highlights - Fuel, purchased power costs, and delivery fees totaled $2.37 billion, up 7.24% from $2.21 billion in the year-ago quarter [3] - Operating costs for the quarter were $655 million, an increase of 6.33% from $616 million in the previous year [3] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses reached $444 million, up 8.02% from $411 million a year ago [3] - Operating income was $1.04 billion, down 59.85% from $2.59 billion in the year-ago quarter [3] Financial Highlights - Cash and cash equivalents stood at $0.60 billion as of September 30, 2025, down from $1.2 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Net cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2025 was $2.64 billion, compared to $3.21 billion in the same period last year [5] - Total capital expenditures for the first nine months of 2025 were $1.92 billion, up from $1.65 billion a year ago [5] Liquidity and Share Repurchase - Available liquidity as of September 30, 2025, was $3.71 billion, sufficient to meet near-term obligations [6] - Since November 2021, Vistra has executed $5.6 billion in share repurchases, reducing share count by 30% [6][8] - The company has $1.0 billion remaining in share repurchase authorization, expected to be completed by the end of 2027 [6] Guidance - The company has narrowed its guidance for 2025 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA to $5.7-$5.9 billion and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth to $3.3-$3.5 billion [9] - For 2026, expected ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $6.8-$7.6 billion, with ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth estimated at $3.925-$4.725 billion [9]