智通财经网·2025-11-11 22:33Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market present investment opportunities, driven by external volatility and investor sentiment to secure profits. The market is expected to recognize various positive factors, leading to potential upward movement after a period of consolidation [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Policy Insights - The macroeconomic environment in China continues to show marginal slowdown, but the new economy, particularly technology, is experiencing strong growth with a half-year profit growth rate of 31.7%, providing robust support for the stock market [2]. - There are signs of easing tensions in US-China relations, with recent high-level talks resulting in several temporary measures, supporting the view of "competition without conflict." The government's upcoming policies are expected to focus on technology innovation, expanding domestic demand, and macroeconomic adjustments [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Valuation - Continuous net inflows from foreign and southbound funds are observed, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and three additional cuts next year, totaling 75 basis points [3]. - The end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction in December is anticipated to alleviate liquidity pressures, further encouraging overseas capital to flow into the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The combination of fundamental support, favorable policies, and improved liquidity positions the Hong Kong stock market in a valuation trough, which is expected to drive a rebound [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy is a return to a "barbell strategy," focusing on offensive positions in technology (AI chain) and non-ferrous metals, while defensive positions should emphasize dividend stocks and turnaround opportunities [4]. - The AI industry chain is highlighted as a resilient growth sector with significant long-term potential, with recommendations for investments in internet-related AI, humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and electric power [4]. - Non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from a combination of dollar depreciation, low interest rates, and liquidity, with gold also gaining from global central bank purchases and safe-haven demand [4]. Group 4: Defensive Strategies - The "turnaround" strategy focuses on essential consumer goods, which are showing signs of supply-demand inflection after four years of challenges, with valuations still at historical lows [5]. - Companies with competitive advantages are expected to increase market share and profit margins, suggesting a phased buying approach for long-term holding [5]. - High dividend strategies are emphasized, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index offering a stable dividend yield of 6%, driven by increasing demand for "fixed income plus" products from southbound funds [5].