The shutdown put jobs and inflation data on hold. Here's when it could be back — and what it might say

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government shutdown has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October, but it appears to be nearing an end, which will allow for the resumption of data collection and reporting [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for key reports such as nonfarm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are expected to be released soon after the government reopens [4] - Economic indicators suggest a slowing labor market and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's comfort level, with expectations of gradual deceleration through 2026 [6][8] Economic Data Delays - The shutdown has caused significant delays in the release of important economic reports, including nonfarm payrolls, CPI, retail sales, and personal spending and income [2][5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the October jobs report will be released shortly after the reopening, potentially by next Tuesday or Wednesday, but other major data releases may be delayed by at least a week [4][5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that despite the data freeze, alternative data sources suggest that the macroeconomic picture has not changed significantly [6][7] - Powell noted that the labor market is gradually cooling, and inflation remains elevated, with the key inflation rate estimated at 2.8% for September, above the Fed's 2% target [7][8] Economic Growth Projections - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimates third-quarter growth at a 4% rate, while Goldman Sachs projects fourth-quarter growth at 1.3%, an upward revision from previous forecasts, indicating a full-year growth pace of 2% [9]