金鹰基金李恒：储能需求进一步强化 上下游产业链或仍有投资机会

Core Insights - The renewable energy sector has significantly outperformed the market since the second half of the year, with the China Securities New Energy Index rising by 62.23% compared to an 18.87% increase in the CSI 300 Index [1] - The surge in demand for energy storage has been a primary driver of this trend, benefiting various segments of the supply chain, including energy storage systems, lithium batteries, and supporting electrical equipment [1] - The construction of AI data centers in North America has led to a rapid increase in electricity demand, highlighting weaknesses in local power infrastructure and prompting new investments in power generation and grid upgrades [2] Renewable Energy Performance - The photovoltaic industry index increased by 60.45%, the new energy vehicle index by 39.30%, the grid equipment index by 43.77%, and the wind power industry index by 19.65% [1] - The implementation of the 136 document by various provinces in China has advanced market-oriented electricity construction, ensuring that independent energy storage projects yield returns above 8% [1] Energy Storage Market Dynamics - From July to October, China saw a significant increase in energy storage system and EPC tender capacity, reaching 157.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 161.3% [1] - The U.S. faces a potential electricity shortfall during peak demand periods due to accelerated AI data center construction, necessitating substantial energy storage solutions by 2028 [2] Investment Opportunities in Energy Storage - Investment opportunities in the energy storage supply chain are identified, with downstream storage systems benefiting from strong local project channels and brand capabilities, particularly in Europe and North America [3] - Midstream lithium battery production is expected to favor leading companies with scale and cost advantages, while upstream materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate are under scrutiny due to capacity constraints [3] - The narrative of electricity shortages abroad is expected to extend to power generation equipment, including gas turbines and nuclear units, as well as grid equipment like transformers [3]