东莞证券研究所负责人曹君瑞：“十五五”规划建议夯实中国式现代化战略根基

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal has been approved, providing direction for China's economic and social development over the next five years [1] - China's economy has shown resilience and strategic determination in the face of global trade challenges, with significant policy collaboration and structural upgrades expected to drive high-quality development [1][5] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, China's total goods import and export amounted to 33.6078 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with exports reaching 19.945 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1% [2] - The export structure has continued to optimize, with mechanical and electrical products seeing a 9.6% increase, accounting for 60.5% of total exports [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 6.2% [2] Strategic Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation as key drivers for modernizing the economy [4] - The plan aims to enhance the quality and scale of economic development through a modern industrial system supported by technological advancements [3][4] - The share of the "new economy" (new industries, new business formats, and new models) in GDP is projected to exceed 18% in 2024, indicating a shift towards new productive forces [4] Future Outlook - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to release dividends from policy collaboration and structural upgrades, facilitating a profound transformation from scale growth to quality improvement in the economy [5] - The focus on technological innovation will not only enhance domestic capabilities but also position China as a standard-setter in global governance [4][5]