Zheng Quan Ri Bao·2025-11-11 23:15Economic Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that China's economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with targets around 5% [2][3] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a GDP growth of approximately 4.9% in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [2][3] - UBS anticipates that domestic economic activities will maintain resilience, with a potential "low at the beginning, high at the end" growth pattern for 2026 [2][3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - CICC forecasts that supply-side policies will focus on enhancing quality consumption while reducing inefficient capacity [3] - Fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, with local special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds increasing in scale [3] - Monetary policy may include two reserve requirement ratio cuts totaling about 100 basis points and one to two interest rate cuts of 10 basis points each [3] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is transitioning from domestic-focused companies to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift towards a mature market [4] - Earnings for A-shares are projected to recover, with non-financial A-share growth expected to reach around 10% [4] - The market is likely to experience a more balanced style in 2026, driven by cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [5] Industry Trends - Key industry themes include the upgrading of traditional manufacturing, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the expansion of AI applications [5] - The "new economy" sectors are expected to grow faster than other economic sectors from 2026 to 2030, with their GDP contribution increasing by 3 percentage points by 2030 [3] - The macroeconomic environment and innovation trends are favorable for growth styles, with a potential shift in market dynamics due to past capacity reduction cycles [5]