Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao - Zhong Zheng Wang·2025-11-12 00:36Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery amidst fluctuations, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - The Chinese capital market has entered a new development phase, driven by global changes, technological trends, and institutional reforms [2]. - The restructuring of industries and finance globally presents opportunities for China, with a notable 7.1% year-on-year increase in exports in the first three quarters of this year [2]. - The resilience of Chinese manufacturing is highlighted, with local leading companies expected to transition into multinational giants, enhancing their pricing power [2]. Group 2: Technological Trends - The transition from old to new economic drivers, fueled by technology, is creating new opportunities in the capital market [3]. - Key technologies in China, such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology, are changing perceptions of the tech gap with the U.S., improving market risk appetite [3]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards new economic development, with the electronic sector's market capitalization surpassing that of the banking sector this year [3]. Group 3: Institutional Reforms - The optimization of the institutional environment is expected to reshape the market ecosystem, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems [4]. - The focus will be on coordinating the development of investment and financing functions, with an emphasis on direct financing and supporting quality enterprises [4]. - There is a significant potential for increasing the proportion of residents' equity asset allocation, with efforts to create a favorable environment for long-term investments [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a growth target of around 5.0% in 2025 and maintain approximately 4.9% in 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [5]. - Fiscal policies are expected to be more proactive, with a deficit rate around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [5]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with potential for interest rate cuts and structural monetary tools to continue [5]. Group 5: Asset Allocation - The global macro environment is generally loose, with government bond yields expected to fluctuate, and the RMB is anticipated to appreciate moderately [5]. - Gold remains an attractive long-term asset for allocation [5]. - The focus on three main investment lines includes the revaluation of manufacturing pricing power, deepening corporate internationalization, and the continuation of the technology market [8][9]. Group 6: Investment Lines - The first investment line focuses on the revaluation of manufacturing pricing power, with an emphasis on sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [9]. - The second line involves the deepening of corporate internationalization, with attention on industries such as machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military equipment [9]. - The third line is centered on the continuation of the technology market, particularly in areas like semiconductors, computing power, and AI applications [9].