Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-12 01:17Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that consumer performance tends to improve when the economic fundamentals start to recover, with profitability elasticity determining the sustainability and resilience of the uptrend [1] - Current macroeconomic conditions remain weak, indicating that the recovery of consumer sentiment will take time, with short-term opportunities linked to potential fiscal stimulus policies [1] - For 2026, the focus should be on opportunities driven by wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization, highlighting the importance of changes in consumer structure over the long term [1] Group 2 - In the social services sector, a differentiated recovery in service consumption is expected in 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors, wealth effects, competitive dynamics, and policy guidance [2] - The K-shaped recovery trend is anticipated to continue into 2026, with low base effects for leading mid-range consumer brands and a shift from pilot exploration to scaled replication in overseas demand [2] - Three main investment themes are recommended: high demand elasticity in the recovery phase for gaming companies and leading ready-to-drink brands, quality targets in leisure travel, and stable, growth-oriented leaders in cyclical sectors [2]