Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (02423), citing its increasing market share in brokerage services and promising growth in home decoration and rental businesses, while its valuation remains attractive compared to smaller competitors like Wo Ai Wo Jia [1] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, Beike reported a total transaction volume (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan, unchanged year-on-year; net revenue was 23.05 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year; and adjusted net profit was 1.29 billion yuan, down 27.8% year-on-year [2] - The company’s cumulative net revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 72.39 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 4.5 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with total sales, management, and R&D expense ratio at 18.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Segment Analysis - In Q3 2025, the second-hand housing GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, while new housing GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year; the monetization rates for second-hand and new housing were 2.53% and 3.4%, respectively [3] - The home decoration and rental businesses showed significant growth, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental revenue at 5.73 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year, both achieving profitability before headquarter expenses [3] Investment Outlook - The company faces significant GTV pressure in Q4 2025 due to declining transaction activity in both the primary and secondary markets; revenue from brokerage services is expected to be under pressure, and growth in the home decoration segment may slow down [4] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards to 3.6 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [4]