PVC期货周报：消费淡季已至 PVC低位震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a low-level fluctuation as the consumption season enters a downturn, with weak fundamentals and no significant driving factors for price increases [1][2]. Supply - The operating rate of PVC production enterprises is at 80.75%, an increase of 2.49% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method operates at 81.21%, up 3.79% month-on-month and 2.64% year-on-year, while the ethylene method is at 79.69%, down 0.51% month-on-month but up 3.03% year-on-year [1]. Demand - The operating rate for PVC pipe enterprises is 39.4%, down 6.19% month-on-month but up 4.21% year-on-year. PVC profile enterprises have an operating rate of 37.61%, down 0.58% month-on-month and 3.93% year-on-year. PVC film enterprises maintain an operating rate of 71.79%, unchanged month-on-month and up 5.06% year-on-year [1]. Inventory - Social inventory of PVC has increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons month-on-month, and is up 26.42% year-on-year. In East China, inventory is at 98580 tons, up 1.46% month-on-month and 27.87% year-on-year. In South China, inventory is at 5580 tons, down 4.39% month-on-month but up 5.34% year-on-year [1]. Cost - The cost of PVC produced by the calcium carbide method is 5158 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month-on-month. The cost for the ethylene method is 5264 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Profit - The gross profit for PVC produced by the calcium carbide method is -769 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton month-on-month. For the ethylene method, the gross profit is -465 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month [2]. Technical Analysis - The V2601 futures contract showed narrow fluctuations with a weekly high of 4702 yuan/ton and a low of 4600 yuan/ton. The Bollinger Bands indicator is expanding, and the futures are trading in a bearish consolidation state with the RSI indicator between 20 and 50 [2]. Conclusion - Overall, the supply remains ample with increased production rates, while demand is weak as the PVC consumption enters a low season. Inventory levels are rising, indicating significant de-stocking pressure. The market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations without clear driving forces for price increases [2].