Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-11-12 02:49Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing active trading, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) showing resilience in the market, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 1.34% and is currently up by 0.56%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Huayu Mining (over 8%) and China Aluminum (over 5%) [1]. - Since its inception, the index tracked by the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF has increased by 181.27%, outperforming other indices like the Non-Ferrous Metal Index (164.89%) and the Industrial Non-Ferrous Index (156.47%) [2][3]. Group 2: Growth Potential - The index associated with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF is expected to show strong and sustained growth, with a projected year-on-year net profit increase of 54.5% in 2025, leading among similar indices [3]. - For 2026, the index is anticipated to maintain a leading position with a forecasted growth rate of 21.0%, indicating robust mid-term growth potential [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The next two years are projected to be critical for China's electrolytic aluminum production, with a forecasted output of approximately 4,420 million tons by 2025, nearing capacity limits [5]. - The domestic aluminum market is currently in a "fragile balance," with supply and demand remaining stable; however, any increase in demand or supply disruptions could lead to shortages [6]. Group 4: Commodity Outlook - Citic Securities anticipates that supply constraints will drive prices of copper, cobalt, and other commodities higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [8]. - The investment interest in commodities is expected to continue, supported by liquidity easing and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide a diversified investment approach across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [10].