印尼加快推进生物燃料计划 供应紧张有望支撑棕榈油牛市前景

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's accelerated biofuel plan is expected to lead to a bull market for palm oil, as it will reduce export supplies from the world's largest producer and exacerbate global palm oil supply tightness [1][4]. Group 1: Indonesia's Biofuel Plan - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending rate from 40% to 50% (B50 plan) by the second half of next year, aiming to lower fuel import costs and greenhouse gas emissions [1][4]. - The implementation of the B50 plan may lead to an increase in domestic palm oil consumption for biodiesel by approximately 25% [4][5]. - The B50 plan could result in a decrease in Indonesia's palm oil exports from an expected 31 million tons this year to 26 million tons by 2026 [4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Projections - The palm oil price is projected to rise to 5,000 Indonesian Rupiah per ton between January and June next year if the B50 plan is pursued [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the B50 plan could push palm oil prices to a three-year high of 5,500 Indonesian Rupiah per ton by the first quarter of 2026 [4]. - The current price of palm oil has fluctuated, with a year-to-date decline of 6%, currently at 4,145 Indonesian Rupiah (approximately $999.61) per ton [1]. Group 3: Supply Risks and External Factors - Weather factors, such as the La Niña phenomenon, may disrupt palm oil harvesting and production from November to February due to above-average rainfall [5]. - Other market-driving factors include U.S.-China agricultural trade agreements and U.S. biofuel policies that may restrict soybean oil exports [5]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the Indonesian government's recent seizure of plantation land, which could negatively impact next year's palm oil production if not managed properly [5].