日本央行会为了捍卫日元加息吗？

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has been depreciating against the US dollar, raising concerns about potential government intervention in 2024, but the current exchange rate has not yet reached a critical threshold for such action [1] - Throughout 2024, the yen has faced significant downward pressure due to a widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's delayed interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to rate hikes [1] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained a conservative stance on interest rate adjustments, with only minor increases in March and July 2024, failing to provide substantial support for the yen [1] Group 2 - In January 2025, the BOJ decided to raise the policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, although previous rate hikes in 2024 were less than 25 basis points [1] - The BOJ's recent monetary policy meeting in October 2024 resulted in a decision to keep the benchmark rate at 0.5%, with some members advocating for a potential increase to 0.75% [2] - There is growing sentiment among BOJ members that conditions for further normalization of monetary policy are nearly met, suggesting a possible rate hike in December 2024 [2] Group 3 - The new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is perceived as a proponent of the previous administration's economic policies, which favored a loose monetary environment to support economic recovery [3] - Takaichi's government may prefer a weaker yen, as indicated by the Finance Minister's comments on the benefits of a depreciated currency for the economy, which could complicate the BOJ's path to rate hikes [3] - Rising inflation in Japan could provide justification for the BOJ to continue raising rates, but the yen's depreciation may also increase inflationary pressures, complicating the central bank's policy decisions [3]