欧盟推迟实施碳排放新规恐压制通胀 欧洲央行或被迫重启宽松

Core Viewpoint - The postponement of the EU's new carbon pricing system (ETS2) is expected to exert pressure on inflation forecasts and may reignite calls for further interest rate cuts in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Inflation - The delay in implementing ETS2 could lead to lower consumer price index (CPI) growth in the Eurozone by 2027 compared to current predictions, potentially resulting in inflation rates below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% for 2026 and 2027 [1][4]. - Danske Bank economists suggest that if ETS2 does not take effect by 2027, the extent of low inflation could be greater, providing a rationale for further rate cuts despite opposition from some officials [4]. - The ECB's latest quarterly forecast anticipates inflation rates of 1.7% and 1.9% for the next two years, with research indicating that ETS2 could raise inflation by 0.2 percentage points or more in 2027 [4][7]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Despite political commitments to significantly reduce carbon emissions by 2040, concerns over rising energy costs may lead to voter backlash, complicating the implementation of ETS2 [7]. - The ETS2 aims to expand the existing emissions trading system to include sectors like construction and road transport, which could have broader economic implications [7]. - ECB President Lagarde downplayed the risks associated with the delay, indicating that the EU Commission's proposal still aims for a 2027 launch, while other ECB officials emphasize that achieving the 2% inflation target heavily relies on the implementation of ETS2 [7]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America suggest that the ETS2 issue alone may not decisively influence ECB policy, especially given the unexpectedly strong GDP growth in the Eurozone [7]. - However, if economic conditions weaken due to ongoing trade issues and inflation expectations decline, the situation may shift towards further monetary easing [7].