华创证券：10月新能源渗透率超55% 关注购置税退坡后的估值修复机会

Core Viewpoint - In October, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.93 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 4%, with retail sales estimated at 2.34 million units, up 3% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month. The effects of trade-in programs remain significant, and exports continue to grow, with October wholesale sales reaching a historical high for the month [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - October wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were 2.93 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 4%. Retail sales are estimated at 2.34 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [2]. - The penetration rate of electric vehicles (EVs) reached 55% in October, with wholesale sales of 1.62 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [2]. - The wholesale sales of domestic car manufacturers reached 2.14 million units in October, with a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8%, accounting for 73.1% of total sales [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - In October, exports totaled 570,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 23% and a month-on-month increase of 3%, leading to an increase in channel inventory of approximately 30,000 units [3]. - The industry discount rate in late October slightly increased, with an overall discount rate of 9.6%, up 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [2]. Group 3: Yearly Outlook - For Q4, retail sales are expected to reach 7.73 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 6%, while wholesale sales are projected at 8.67 million units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1%. The total retail sales for the year are expected to be 24.23 million units, up 6.7% year-on-year, and wholesale sales at 29.61 million units, up 8.6% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - As the year ends, various brands are gradually implementing policies to phase out purchase tax incentives, with expectations that Q4 sales will be less impacted than previously anticipated. The sector is expected to see a recovery as the impact of policy changes diminishes [5]. - Recommended stocks for investment include Geely Automobile and BYD, with a focus on Geely's valuation being in single digits for the coming year. Additionally, JAC Motors is highlighted for its strong product cycle and favorable pricing after recent adjustments [5].