多空交织下人民币显韧性，“稳”字当头延续偏强态势

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has shown strong resilience against the US dollar, maintaining a stable and slightly strong trend since surpassing the 7.1 mark on October 15, despite fluctuations in the US dollar index [1][3]. Group 1: Current Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB's central parity against the US dollar has slightly depreciated over two consecutive days, with rates reported at 7.0856 and 7.0866 on November 10 and 11, respectively, influenced by a slight increase in the US dollar index [3]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 97.96, the BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index hit 104.19, and the SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index stood at 92.34, all marking new highs since mid-April [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Stability - The RMB's strength is supported by various factors, including the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts and the impact of tariff policies on the US economy, which limit the upward potential of the US dollar index [3]. - Domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies are expected to stabilize economic operations in the fourth quarter, providing solid internal support for the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The chief economist at CITIC Securities expresses an optimistic long-term outlook for the RMB, predicting a moderate appreciation next year, provided that exports do not experience unexpected changes [4]. - The overall trend of stability in the RMB exchange rate remains unchanged, with its inherent resilience expected to continue amid mixed market conditions [4].