澳洲联储谨慎应对“高通胀+结构性疲软”双重挑战

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a "mildly restrictive" monetary policy stance, emphasizing that this assessment is based on expectations of continued inflation moderation [1][3] Monetary Policy Outlook - RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted that any policy adjustments must rely on actual data and macroeconomic assessments, indicating that the current policy environment faces "unusual challenges" [3][4] - The RBA decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% during the November meeting, aligning with market expectations, while significantly raising future inflation forecasts [5][6] - The RBA's core inflation rate is projected to remain above the target range of 2%-3% until the second half of 2026, with a peak CPI expected at 3.7% in June 2026 [6] Employment Data Focus - The upcoming employment data is anticipated to show a slight decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.5% in September to 4.4% in October, with approximately 20,000 new jobs expected [1][2] - Hauser noted that there is no "satisfactory" unemployment rate for the central bank, indicating a complex decision-making environment if unemployment rises while inflation persists [1][3] Consumer Trends - Current consumer data reflects a "gradual, moderate recovery," although there are signs of instability in consumer confidence, which will be monitored for sustainability [2] Economic Conditions - The Australian economy is experiencing a divergence, with strong household consumption and rising property prices supporting demand, while manufacturing has shown signs of contraction and job numbers have declined [9] - The RBA is navigating a complex situation of "overheated demand" alongside "structural weakness," complicating policy formulation [9] Institutional Perspectives - Moody's Analytics has ruled out the possibility of rate cuts in December 2025 and February 2026, emphasizing that the RBA must see convincing evidence of inflation decline before taking action [7] - Capital Economics anticipates that the RBA will maintain a neutral stance on risk assessments and expects two rate cuts in the second half of 2026, contingent on inflation easing [8]