拆解中国“新三样”万亿出口：谁在卖？卖去哪？

Core Insights - China's "New Three Items" (electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, solar cells) are experiencing significant export growth, with a total export value of 909.77 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 20% year-on-year increase [3][7][11] - The export of electric vehicles is particularly noteworthy, with 2.599 million units exported, representing a 55.1% increase, and an export value of 339.69 billion yuan, up 33.1% [4][11] - The solar cell export volume increased by 69.3% to 9.28 billion units, but the export value fell by 13.3% to 15.22 billion yuan due to oversupply and price declines [20][21] Export Performance - The export of lithium-ion batteries is the largest by value, with 3.9713 trillion yuan exported in the first three quarters, a 27.8% increase, accounting for over 43% of the "New Three Items" export value [3][15] - Guangdong is the largest province for "New Three Items" exports, while Anhui shows the fastest growth rate [4][10] - Western Europe is the primary market for China's "New Three Items," with Germany being the largest importer, accounting for nearly 10% of total exports [5][11] Market Dynamics - The rapid growth of Chinese electric vehicles in Thailand, where they hold over 80% market share in the electric vehicle sector, exemplifies the success of China's "New Three Items" [3][11] - The average export price of solar cells has dropped significantly, indicating a price war in the industry, which may lead to a consolidation of weaker companies [20][23] - The demand for lithium batteries is increasing globally, particularly in Europe and the U.S., where local supply is insufficient, providing opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [17][18] Regional Insights - The top ten countries for electric vehicle exports from China include six in the Asia-Pacific region, with Belgium being the largest market, followed by Australia and Thailand [14][12] - The export of lithium batteries is dominated by Fujian province, which accounts for over 25% of the total lithium battery exports from China [15][16] - The trend of diversifying export destinations is evident, with developing countries increasingly becoming significant markets for solar products [21][22]