中国银河证券:短期扰动不改业绩回升趋势 继续看好银行板块配置价值
智通财经网·2025-11-12 08:14

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector's performance in Q3 is temporarily affected by non-interest income disturbances, but steady growth in scale continues to support overall performance, with a stable trend in interest margins and improving net interest income [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - In Q1-Q3 2025, listed banks' revenue grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with pre-provision profit increasing by 0.62% and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 1.46%, showing a recovery from earlier declines [1] - The annualized weighted average ROE stands at 10.61%, down by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [1] Group 2: Asset Quality and Provisioning - As of the end of September, the non-performing loan ratio for listed banks is 1.15%, unchanged from the first half of the year, with stable asset quality expected for corporate loans and manageable risks in retail [4] - The provision coverage ratio is at 283.17%, down by 4.11 percentage points from the first half, with an increased release of provisions contributing to net profit growth [4] Group 3: Interest Income and Cost of Liabilities - In Q1-Q3 2025, net interest income for listed banks decreased by 0.62% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the first half of the year, indicating a stabilization in interest margins [2] - The sample banks' net interest margin is at 1.55%, down by 1 basis point from the first half, with improvements in deposit costs and active adjustments in liability structures supporting this trend [2] Group 4: Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income growth for listed banks has slowed to 4.98% year-on-year, with middle-income sources improving by 4.6%, primarily benefiting from a recovering capital market [3] - Investment income has increased by 20.59% year-on-year, despite fluctuations in other non-interest income due to bond market volatility [3] Group 5: Recommendations - The report recommends investment in specific banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and China Merchants Bank [5]