日元跌至九个月新低！日本政府干预预期升温

Core Viewpoint - The recent depreciation of the Japanese yen is testing the patience of Japanese policymakers and causing unease among investors, primarily driven by the new leadership's focus on economic growth without immediate interest rate hikes [1][3]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Impact - The yen has weakened significantly, reaching a nine-month low against the dollar at 154.79, raising concerns about the impact on Japan's economy, particularly for an economy reliant on imported energy and materials [1][3]. - The depreciation of the yen has increased import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures on households and squeezing profits for domestic market-oriented companies, leading to a cost-of-living crisis [3]. - The potential for government intervention in the currency market is heightened by external pressures, including criticism from U.S. officials regarding Japan's currency policies [3][11]. Group 2: Currency Intervention Mechanism - Currency intervention occurs when a central bank actively engages in the foreign exchange market to influence the value of its currency, with Japan's Ministry of Finance determining the timing of such interventions [4]. - Japan's foreign exchange reserves, amounting to $1.15 trillion as of the end of October, are typically used to fund interventions, often involving the sale of U.S. Treasury securities [5]. - The effectiveness of currency intervention is often temporary, serving primarily to signal to speculators that extreme fluctuations in currency value will not be tolerated [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Actions - Japan has historically intervened in the currency market, with recent actions costing nearly $100 billion to support the yen, particularly around the 160 yen per dollar mark [7]. - Officials typically do not confirm interventions immediately, but they do release monthly reports on intervention expenditures to maintain market speculation and enhance the effectiveness of their policy signals [8]. - Verbal interventions by high-ranking officials can also serve to deter market speculation and stabilize the currency [9]. Group 4: Political and Diplomatic Considerations - Currency interventions can lead to significant market volatility, impacting speculative traders and complicating pricing and hedging for businesses [10]. - The political implications of currency intervention are complex, as actions perceived as currency manipulation can attract criticism, particularly if aimed at weakening the yen [10][11]. - Any intervention by Japan is communicated to the U.S. in advance, and if the outcome strengthens the yen, it may receive tacit approval from the Trump administration [12].