美国大豆出口协会CEO：希望当中国需要大豆时，第一个电话能打给美国

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges due to tariffs and trade tensions with China, leading to a decline in exports and financial strain on farmers [1][4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - U.S. soybean exports are crucial, with a projected value of $24.58 billion in 2024, accounting for 14% of total agricultural exports [3]. - China is expected to purchase $12.64 billion worth of soybeans in 2024, representing over half of U.S. soybean exports [3][4]. - The U.S. soybean industry has a long history of cooperation with China, dating back 43 years, emphasizing the importance of maintaining strong ties [1][3]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Market Conditions - The introduction of tariffs has led to a 58% decrease in U.S. soybean imports by China in the first half of 2025, with imports dropping to 12 million tons [4]. - The number of U.S. farm bankruptcies increased by 57% in the first half of the year, attributed to the adverse effects of the tariff policies [4]. - U.S. farmers are currently facing a significant inventory surplus, with some holding stocks for up to two years due to low prices [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The cost of soybean production has risen nearly 50% since 2019, with fertilizer prices increasing by 120% and fuel costs by approximately 80% [7]. - Farmers are currently losing $3 for every bushel of soybeans sold, leading to potential losses of tens of thousands of dollars for those farming around 80 hectares [8]. - The future market share of U.S. soybeans in China is expected to stabilize between 30% and 40%, down from previous highs of over 50% [8].